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Prediction for CME (2024-11-27T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-27T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35370/-1
CME Note: Southeastward partial halo CME with the likely source a filament eruption seen in GOES SUVI 304 and 284 starting around 2024-11-27T18:45Z extending southeastwards from Active Regions 13905 (S09E01) and 13906 (S16E08). The CME also has a second, following front - a loop seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2024-11-27T20:36Z. Only one frame for this CME is available in STEREO A COR2 because of an extensive data gap.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-02T20:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-02T14:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-11-28T04:28Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 391
Longitude (deg): 21E
Latitude (deg): 37S
Half-angular width (deg): 32

Notes: Ill-defined leading edge with coronagraph arm adding difficulty of assessment for this CME.
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 44.05 hour(s)
Difference: 6.12 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-12-01T00:04Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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